saturday night fights

[sphincter]

well,here goes....

everybody appears to be fixated on the mayorga-forrest bout saturday night...i`m looking at judah-corley.....

one thing scares me here....judah`s layoff....no excuse for it..i`m breaking with my promise after the harding loss.....layoffs are poison in boxing....but,i don`t care.......it`s been over a year since judah decisioned omar weis..corley fought in january of this year...but only has 2 fights in the last 2 years(much like judah)..and i was shocked that judah came back against such a tough guy...i think weis is absolutely one of the best jr welters in the world...not a banger...but a difficult,awkward guy to fight....

but,back to the point,judah`s whole family lives,eats,sleeps and s-its boxing...his father and his brothers....these guys are about boxing whether judah is fighting or not..

the tszyu mess has stuck in his craw for 2 years.....

corley,imo,is not in the same class....he has wins over ener julio and randall bailey....julio`s decent.....bailey can take you out if he hits you,but,is a lousy technician.....he`s not beating solid,tip top boxers....

judah has heavier hands than corley....my guess is that corley will try and move,move,move.....but,is he a quicker guy than judah?....a better boxer?....i don`t believe it.....

judah is seasoned against solid fighters,not to mention a super amateur background... terron millet when he was still a champ,reggie green,mickey ward,jan piet bergmann,junior witter...the vet daryl tyson..weis...solid opposition....

is judah`s chin shaky?.....maybe....but,getting caught by kostya tszyu doesn`t necessarily mean you have china for whiskers.....and the stoppage was somewhat controversial....

if judah loses here,he can forget ever getting a shot at revenge with tszyu....as a matter of fact,he becomes just another face in the crowd.....

and that publicity punch-out.....could it have intimidated corley?.......i don`t know....

many were calling judah a top 5 pound for pound guy prior to tszyu.....i could argue that tszyu is a top 5 pound for pound guy.....

i think judah`s pedigree,his desire to redeem himself,the opportunity to get a piece of a championship again,and take a huge step back to the top and get much closer to getting tszyu again,not to mention that he is the better guy,are enough to lay the wood.....

will that chin betray him?.....corley only has 16 k.o.`s in 28 wins....many against chumps....will he outbox judah?...i doubt it....but,if judah thinks he`s losing,he has the wherewithal to get you out of there...

i laid the -270 or so....play at your own risk...i just have to go with the better guy with enormous motivation.....

mayorga-forrest.....again,i think forrest wins...i equate the first fight to lennox lewis-haseem rahman 1.......i don`t think forrest gets caught napping again....flush with overconfidence after the 2 mosely wins....he lost his composure and forgot his fight plan....


will i bet forrest......i doubt it....can`t keep laying this heavy wood in these competitive bouts...

maybe a hedge....mayorga by k.o. and forrest by decision....but,i expect mayorga to come out frantic again.....i`m sure forrest is aware of this...but,if forrest weathers the storm of the first 3 rounds,how long can mayorga keep attacking before he tires?....he`s wild...and not a very good technician...after maybe 5,6, or 7 rounds of chasing and expending energy,maybe forrest starts to chop down or cut up mayorga......

a toughie....i really think forrest wins....but,i may put something on mayorga by k.o...i`d be shocked if mayorga wins a decision.....

forrest winning by mid to late round k.o. or decision....

no bet as of right now...still looking...i don`t think lightning strikes twice....maybe with 2 solid all around fighters like forrest and mosely...but,will a wild,cigarette smoking,brawler like mayorga get forrest twice?......will he get sloppy again?...

i doubt it...but,like i said,mayorga by kayo at over 3-1 for a case of beer and chits and giggles...only,i really don`t expect it to happen..

not sure yet on this one...

 

[franks.]

Well, you basucally said what's been on my mind
regarding both bouts. I wish to elaborate on the
Forrest-Mayorga contest. I have to ask myself, does Ricardo think, or will he even try ,to outbox Vernon? I think not. Will he try to do what worked once before? I think yes. Naturally,
Forrest will try and approach this differently this go-round. Will Mayorga co-operate? I say
a resounding no! Forrest either keeps his distance or holds and ties his man up. No other way to fight a brawler. Even the best laid plans go awry. I don't see this going past 7
rounds, regardless who wins. Who knows, a DQ may be a possibility here. No matter how this one starts, I see it turning into a knife fight
at some point. Mayorga has no respect for Forrest and is essentially fearless. I see a KO
or TKO in this one. Incidentally, Chop-Chop is
supposed to be wearing some very unusual garb in
their fight. He likes to wear a skirt and has exposed himself more than folks care for. He now says this new attire is for the ladies. I wonder if Judah will let a guy who is wearing
a mini-skirt beat him up? Also, Judah's knowledge of the "52 blocks" should help him
confuse Corley. Judah is avail at Pinnacle at a very good price.

 

[Gillian]

I wasn't impressed with Judah in his last fight. But I also wasn't impressed with Corely in his last fight either. I give Judah the edge, but not by much. i'm staying away from this one. I'm itching to put money on Mayorga... but you never know what Forrest will have up his sleave. Then again, maybe Vernon had Suga Shane's number, and no one elses.

 

[sphincter]

franks.....you lost me with the "52 blocks" reference.....help me out

...

gil.....judah`s last fight came after the long layoff...and omar weis is a very,very difficult guy to fight....but,i have to say,this will be another long layoff for judah....and that scares the hell out of me.....i may get spanked for ignoring such a crucial factor....sometimes,i just get hard headed....

i wouldn`t blame anyone for taking both dogs.....most think both are very live puppies.....

g.l. guys...

 

[franks.]

Reference to "52 Blocks"; Spinch, as you noted
Zab's whole family lives boxing. They also know lots of people, many of them street guys who have done time. The 52 blocks is a style of fighting that was brought over by blacks many
years ago. It is extremely complex and consists
of many surrepetious moves, many not permitted in boxing, but deployable if modified. The name comes from a 52 card deck, as in 52 pick up. Toss the cards and let them land where they may.
I realize this may sound confusing, but it's just another discipline, possibly a form of capo
eira, a brazilian fighting technique. Judah wins
this fight.

 

[valdosta]

I could be wrong but I posted this on another thread....

The Judah/Corley underlooks like a great deal to me. You have the whole damn fight basically for the under. You get 11.5 (halfway through round 12) rounds for -105. Judah has been highly innactive. I believe he has been off around a year or so. Judah's strengths are speed and power. He is very, very quick. His weakness's are CHIN and he gets sloppy at times. His sloppiness leaves openings for opponents. Judah often drops his hands and moves straight back. He has been knocked down by Terron Millett,Jan Bergman and KO'ed by Kostya Tszyu. Tszyu hits harder than Corley but Millett and bergman don't.

Corley is a pretty solid fighter himself. He hits hard and is pretty fast. He don't make as many mistakes in the ring as Judah and he likes to counter at times. Corley's not quite as fast or powerfull as Judah but he makes fewer mistakes. On the other hamd Corley has so so stamina which shouldn't allow him to last the distance if it goes that far. Corley took a knee 2 times against Ener Julio because he was tired.

IMO the odds of this fight going 11.5 rounds (halfway through round 12) aren't very high. It will probably go some rounds because both might fight a bit conservatively at the beginning. As the fight goes on though someone will make a mistake and get caught, ending the fight IMO.

 

[sphincter]

franks...thanks...i learned something here tonight....

valdosta....some good points....you may have talked me into it......

 

[sphincter]

v......only under 9.5 at oly for +160.....still may be worth a shot...

 

[valdosta]

If you have an account at Pinnacle that is the place I was talking about. Olympic gives a better number but I like having the extra rounds to be honest.

 

[valdosta]

you can get 11.5 at 5dimes also.

 

[sphincter]

v....i take it you believe pinnacle to be very reputable....i`m looking for another book at the moment....what`s the skinny on them?....thanks..

 

[valdosta]

I have yet to hear a bad thing about Pinnacle. As far as I know they are a VERY highly thought of website. I only have had a account there for a short time but a good friend of mine has told me they are excellent as have most of the posters reviews that I have read at MW and here.

[This message was edited by valdosta on July 09, 2003 at 02:43 AM.]

 

[sphincter]

appreciated....am looking into it...

 

[almly]

Ok, it's time for me to kick in here. First of all I think Gil touched on something that people really need to think about. Before the Mayorga fight most everybody had Forrest as one of the top P4P fighters in the world. Why? Because he beat one the best P4P fighters in the world twice. I dont care about the 2 losses, Mosely is still one of the best fighters in the world. So after the 2nd win Forrest got the credit that he deserved. HOWEVER, who else has he beaten? Is Forrest really a GREAT fighter or is he just a guy that had a great fighters number? This is a question that I dont think people have really thought about enough.

I think that there is a good chance that some serious irony might play out here. I think Forrest might have just met somebody that has his #. I've been waiting for Spinch to push me out of the nest on this one because Spinch is one of the toughest cappers I've ever fuking seen. Dosent look like thats gonna happen though. I will still probably make the value play on Mayorga but am wondering also what happens if Mayorga dosent get the knockout within 4-5 rounds. Wont he be all out of gas since he'll be fighting like an animal and is a big smoker and drinker? I think that the smart money in this would be the under 9.5 rounds. Somebody is getting KO'D

OK Spinch, I got some serious respect for you but I'm shocked that you called Weis one of THE best at 140. Yes Weis is an awkward fighter but you cant tell me that he is one of the best at 140. You shocked me with that one. IMO Tszyu, Gatti, Ward, Urkal, Hatton, prob Mitchell, and a few others could take him.

You cracked me up when you were talking about the Judah family. I met Zab once and my biggest boxing win was when I bet Tszyu at +280 for a little over 3 dimes to win almost 10. I waited forever for that fight and was ringside at it. I saw the Judah clan a couple of times that weekend at the MGM and after the fight (after I got drunk with Bobby Csyz and Al Bernstein in one of the bars there) I saw one of Judahs brothers walking around the mall/restaurante part of the MGM.

There are like 9 of these guys/kids and they all look the exact same. I walked up to the kid in the hallway cause it was that obvious he was one of them. This kid had the look in his eyes like he just lost a parent. I mean, its just like Spinch said, it's not a game to them.

I've never seen Corely fight so thats another reason why I've been waiting on Spinch. But I just cant see Judah losing this fight. The big problem with Judah is his defense. He has supposedly made some serious adjustments so I'm feeling that Judah shouldnt have that big a problem with this fight. He still has one hell of an offense. I got a feeling that this probably wont go the distance either. My lean on this is Judah and the under.

I think I'm also going with Mayorga and the under.

[This message was edited by almly on July 09, 2003 at 03:59 AM.]

 

[valdosta]

Good point about Forrest's opposition. When you really look at it, he has only fought Mayorga and Mosley. What punchers has he really faced?? Has he been protected (up until Mosley) on purpose?? Let's not forget that Mosley isn't a great puncher at WW or JR. MW. He tends to wear people down before he KO's them. Well, he couldn't land enough on Forrest to wear him down. I have seen Forrest in the amateurs against Terron Millett and he was stopped in that fight also. Forrest may win the fight but he MUST avoid getting hit. Basically he has to fight a perfect fight. He has to jab, move to the side and hit Mayorga with straight power shots. Mayorga punches wide so you beat him by punching straight up the middle. FORREST CAN'T RUN. If you watch him, he isn't a conventional boxer. He's kind of lead footed but he uses his range well. There's no value on Forrest. Even if he wins, I consider him a very unwise bet at the current odds. Mayorga has a big psychological advantage in this fight.

 

[franks.]

I have to say one thing. I've been all over the Net researching this card, and this is the best
thread I've seen so far. Lots of intelligent
insight and honesty. My picks: Zab to win. Zab
under 11.5 at Pinnacle, an excellent book.
Now this one, Forrest-Mayorga, if you work out the money right, you bet it to end by Ko, TKO,
or DQ and you bet BOTH sides at +odds. I can't
envision Mayorga wanting to hang around all nite. Hopefully we see a 4th of July encore
fireworks display this w/e.

 

[sphincter]

well,after a good nights sleep it was great to wake up to all this solid info on saturday`s bouts.....this is what we are here for....great stuff..

almly......i like weis....but,maybe i overstated a bit

....i think he`s definitely top 10...ranked 7,7 and 4 in 3 of the 4 alphabet organizations....not in the ring top 10....but,leija and valenzuela are....go figure....one of those guys that usually has to fight in the other guys hometown....but,many guys avoid him....i`d bet a dollar to a donut that you`ll never see gatti and weis in the same ring.....gatti,imo,is much better than he was....with mcgirt...but,he`s still gatti...and he still brawls to much and could get cut from a strong feint....and those hands....a guy that might have been really special if he had better boxing sense...

but,almly is a smart boxing guy...and i totally respect your opinion so i`ll step back from the weis statement....good point...i overstated...when guys win me money,maybe i stay a little to loyal...and weis has won for me...

as i said in my thread,i didn`t have a strong opinion on forrest-mayorga....and a i have to admit,at almost 3-1,i have already put a small wager on mayorga by kayo....i see the logic....

but,i just don`t think mayorga is really a great fighter...he`s technically terrible...bad balance,footwork....as valdosta noted,and it`s a big consideration for me,he punches wide.....that`s usually a fatal flaw against the tip top guys....hell,in a street fight,you punch wide and your done...forrest stopped santago samaniego...a guy i think is similar to mayorga...maybe not as strong,but,technically better...samaniego may be a little more like antonio margarito...i`d love to see margarito and mayorga...what a war...samaniego and vince phillips were both opponents that can bang...

i just have trouble with the idea that a guy with forrest`s amateur background,height,boxing ability(he`s not a mover,but you don`t have to run to be a good boxer...ie toney and hopkins) can`t adjust to take advantage of this kind of style....and mayorga isn`t gonna change his style....he can`t...he doesn`t have the wherewithal.....

i expect forrest to weather the early s-itstorm....he has to....the longer this goes,the better it will look for forrest.....i don`t expect mayorga to be able to sustain the frenetic attack for 12 rounds....and the later this goes,as he tires,the offense slows....and the guy`s offense is his defense....

and lets not forget that forrest also has gloves on....

i believe that six heads lewis was a poser....and i honestly think that mayorga is a big ?........

but,i did wager a six pack on mayorga by kayo....and haven`t wagered a thing yet on forrest...

i believe forrest adjusts....but,not enough to open the wallet....

if he doesn`t,unlike shane mosley,he will have trouble getting back on top..doesn`t have mosley`s appeal...he will have to move up and that will be difficult considering what`s waiting for him....(delahoya,winky wright, maybe hopkins-that could be a stretch,vargas etc).....i don`t know how forrest will handle bigger guys if the mayorga`s give him trouble....and another k.o. by mayorga basically gives everyone the gameplan to beating forrest...exposes a real weakness and inability to handle pressure fighters.....even wild,untechnical ones like mayorga....

great stuff on this thread....i think we really have a solid group here now....

 

[almly]

I heard last week that a Byrd vs Oquendo fight is in the works right now for HBO. I got erect like only Elizabeth Shue could get me when I heard that. I would DUMP on that fight. I'd lay the 10 grand to win 2 or whatever it is. Then again, I'd lay it on almost any top heavy against Fres.

 

[sphincter]

i have to say,elizabeth shue absolutely floats my boat also...you must have seen palmetto and the vegas movie with nicholas cage.....

speaking of shue reminds me of an interesting story ....

i was having trouble reading so i decided to go and see my eye doctor....


the eye doctor tells me,"sphincter, you`ll have to stop masturbating"....

and i say to the doctor," c`mon doc,that`s an old wives tale...you can`t go blind from masturbating".......

the doc says,"no,sphincter,you can`t.......but it`s very rude to the other people in the waiting room"...........

he had a point

 

[almly]

I know this is a little far out but Im curious. What are your thoughts on Holy vs Toney and Ali vs Martin. I'm seriously eyeing Toney.